Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Citic Guoan Wine CO.,LTD (600084.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.04 - $0.06$0.05
Multi-Stage$0.08 - $0.09$0.08
Blended Fair Value$0.07
Current Price$5.39
Upside-98.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-45.59%-45.79%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.030.030.050.09
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-85.06%13.10%-38.74%-48.15%-14.42%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.20%0.95%0.38%0.47%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.282.051.23
Cash Retained (M)15.2315.2315.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.28-2.05-1.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9613.1814.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.261,141.261,141.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-13.10%-12.10%-11.10%
Fair Value$0.04$0.05$0.06
Upside / Downside-99.20%-99.07%-98.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.3814.4012.6511.129.788.598.85
Payout Ratio6.99%23.59%40.20%56.80%73.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.153.405.096.327.187.748.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate-13.10%-12.10%-11.10%
Year 1 PV (M)3.053.093.12
Year 2 PV (M)4.114.214.30
Year 3 PV (M)4.594.754.92
Year 4 PV (M)4.694.915.14
Year 5 PV (M)4.544.815.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)69.1373.2077.46
Equity Value (M)90.1294.97100.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.261,141.261,141.26
Fair Value$0.08$0.08$0.09
Upside / Downside-98.53%-98.46%-98.37%

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