Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Phenix Optical Company Limited (600071.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.71 - $10.86$6.89
Multi-Stage$3.37 - $3.68$3.52
Blended Fair Value$5.20
Current Price$23.85
Upside-78.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.23%25.23%0.080.090.080.060.050.010.010.020.010.02
YoY Growth---10.50%20.99%34.09%16.46%323.21%-12.29%-37.28%42.48%-39.28%178.38%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.48%0.36%0.16%0.37%0.13%0.10%0.13%0.07%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.577.854.71
Cash Retained (M)47.8147.8147.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.57-7.85-4.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.2439.9643.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.24275.24275.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.71$6.89$10.86
Upside / Downside-80.25%-71.13%-54.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.8366.9171.2675.8980.8286.0888.66
Payout Ratio23.90%37.12%50.34%63.56%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0224.8435.8748.2462.0677.4782.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.4522.6622.88
Year 2 PV (M)29.3129.8730.43
Year 3 PV (M)35.6336.6537.69
Year 4 PV (M)41.4343.0244.66
Year 5 PV (M)46.7549.0151.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)751.12787.40825.07
Equity Value (M)926.70968.621,012.09
Shares Outstanding (M)275.24275.24275.24
Fair Value$3.37$3.52$3.68
Upside / Downside-85.88%-85.24%-84.58%

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