Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (4887.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$834.99 - $1,322.83$1,057.56
Multi-Stage$1,785.99 - $1,963.05$1,872.80
Blended Fair Value$1,465.18
Current Price$2,004.50
Upside-26.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.54%5.15%50.8747.7247.7147.7147.7049.5347.6940.1740.1733.94
YoY Growth--6.60%0.02%0.00%0.02%-3.69%3.85%18.74%0.00%18.35%10.23%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.15%3.95%3.48%2.89%2.73%2.63%2.21%2.21%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,543.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,976.601,235.38741.23
Cash Retained (M)3,543.003,543.003,543.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,976.60-1,235.38-741.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,566.402,307.632,801.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
LTM Dividend per Share53.1353.1353.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2672.4776.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Fair Value$834.99$1,057.56$1,322.83
Upside / Downside-58.34%-47.24%-34.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,883.009,853.449,823.969,794.579,765.289,736.0610,028.15
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,340.006,830.457,317.907,802.388,283.898,762.469,276.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Year 1 PV (M)6,347.286,411.596,475.90
Year 2 PV (M)6,319.236,447.936,577.92
Year 3 PV (M)6,261.006,453.246,649.37
Year 4 PV (M)6,177.176,431.346,693.28
Year 5 PV (M)6,071.846,385.726,712.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,945.57191,351.26201,141.97
Equity Value (M)213,122.10223,481.08234,250.89
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$1,785.99$1,872.80$1,963.05
Upside / Downside-10.90%-6.57%-2.07%

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