Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Suzhou Kematek Inc (301611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.95 - $7.02$5.97
Multi-Stage$7.33 - $8.05$7.68
Blended Fair Value$6.83
Current Price$58.71
Upside-88.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)329.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)283.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.9441.2124.73
Cash Retained (M)283.28283.28283.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.94-41.21-24.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)217.34242.07258.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)435.87435.87435.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.95$5.97$7.02
Upside / Downside-91.56%-89.83%-88.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)329.69326.40323.13319.90316.70313.54322.94
Payout Ratio14.08%29.26%44.45%59.63%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.4195.51143.62190.76236.94282.18298.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)85.9786.8587.72
Year 2 PV (M)116.36118.75121.16
Year 3 PV (M)139.12143.42147.81
Year 4 PV (M)155.54161.99168.64
Year 5 PV (M)166.74175.42184.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,531.262,663.072,800.32
Equity Value (M)3,195.013,349.513,510.12
Shares Outstanding (M)435.87435.87435.87
Fair Value$7.33$7.68$8.05
Upside / Downside-87.51%-86.91%-86.28%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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