Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenzhen Honor Electronic Co., Ltd. (300870.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$108.27 - $635.53$199.11
Multi-Stage$63.66 - $69.63$66.59
Blended Fair Value$132.85
Current Price$215.50
Upside-38.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS119.27%0.00%0.770.270.270.340.000.020.000.200.060.00
YoY Growth--185.12%1.02%-21.42%10,962.44%-79.76%0.00%-100.00%208.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%0.59%0.46%0.68%0.01%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)333.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)260.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.6141.6324.98
Cash Retained (M)260.68260.68260.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.61-41.63-24.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)194.07219.05235.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.75103.75103.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.872.112.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.872.112.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.572.812.97
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$108.27$199.11$635.53
Upside / Downside-49.76%-7.60%194.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)333.03354.68377.73402.28428.43456.28469.97
Payout Ratio21.73%35.38%49.04%62.69%76.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.35125.49185.22252.19327.09410.65434.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.10116.19117.28
Year 2 PV (M)155.82158.79161.79
Year 3 PV (M)194.60200.19205.88
Year 4 PV (M)231.50240.40249.55
Year 5 PV (M)266.58279.45292.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,641.525,914.016,196.93
Equity Value (M)6,605.126,909.037,224.25
Shares Outstanding (M)103.75103.75103.75
Fair Value$63.66$66.59$69.63
Upside / Downside-70.46%-69.10%-67.69%

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