DDM Analysis: 300818.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$14.25 - $72.45	$29.32
Multi-Stage	$7.88 - $8.61	$8.24
Blended Fair Value	$18.78
Current Price	$27.67
Upside	-32.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	84.93%	65.14%	0.24	0.19	0.01	0.04	0.09	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	26.67%	1,484.51%	-69.96%	-56.59%	726.27%	-24.72%	-22.48%	-55.22%	0.00%	-100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.73%	0.07%	0.18%	0.72%	0.07%	0.10%	0.00%	0.30%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	58.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	19.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.72	7.33	4.40
Cash Retained (M)	39.30	39.30	39.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.72	-7.33	-4.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.57	31.97	34.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	160.89	160.89	160.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.29	0.32	0.34
WACC / Discount Rate	7.66%	7.66%	7.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$14.25	$29.32	$72.45
Upside / Downside	-48.50%	5.97%	161.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	58.61	62.42	66.48	70.80	75.40	80.30	82.71
Payout Ratio	32.96%	44.37%	55.77%	67.18%	78.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	19.32	27.69	37.08	47.57	59.26	72.27	76.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.66%	7.66%	7.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	25.48	25.72	25.97
Year 2 PV (M)	31.39	31.99	32.59
Year 3 PV (M)	37.06	38.12	39.20
Year 4 PV (M)	42.48	44.11	45.79
Year 5 PV (M)	47.67	49.97	52.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,083.49	1,135.82	1,190.16
Equity Value (M)	1,267.57	1,325.75	1,386.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	160.89	160.89	160.89
Fair Value	$7.88	$8.24	$8.61
Upside / Downside	-71.53%	-70.22%	-68.87%

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Naipu Mining Machinery Co., Ltd. (300818.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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