Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Betta Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (300558.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.80 - $143.51$134.49
Multi-Stage$36.89 - $40.42$38.62
Blended Fair Value$86.55
Current Price$66.81
Upside29.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.88%12.86%0.360.260.330.330.280.100.200.180.000.00
YoY Growth--36.81%-20.96%1.36%14.99%171.37%-46.58%7.54%0.00%-100.00%-96.92%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.63%0.56%0.59%0.27%0.15%0.43%0.27%0.00%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)303.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.6637.9122.75
Cash Retained (M)136.75136.75136.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.66-37.91-22.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.1098.84114.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.29420.29420.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.80$134.49$143.51
Upside / Downside82.31%101.30%114.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)303.28322.99343.98366.34390.15415.51427.98
Payout Ratio54.91%61.93%68.94%75.96%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.52200.01237.16278.28323.76373.96395.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.06%5.06%5.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)188.60190.38192.17
Year 2 PV (M)210.85214.87218.93
Year 3 PV (M)233.30239.99246.82
Year 4 PV (M)255.92265.77275.89
Year 5 PV (M)278.74292.20306.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,336.7915,029.2715,748.24
Equity Value (M)15,504.2016,232.4816,988.22
Shares Outstanding (M)420.29420.29420.29
Fair Value$36.89$38.62$40.42
Upside / Downside-44.78%-42.19%-39.50%

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