DDM Analysis: 1954.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21,509.54 - $66,858.64	$62,654.15
Multi-Stage	$9,949.17 - $10,893.82	$10,412.78
Blended Fair Value	$36,533.46
Current Price	$3,370.00
Upside	984.08%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2012
DPS	8.26%	3.82%	76.23	0.00	79.01	78.88	79.15	51.26	51.13	38.51	12.81	37.52
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.17%	-0.34%	54.40%	0.26%	32.76%	200.52%	-65.84%	-28.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.14%	0.00%	2.77%	2.50%	2.65%	1.34%	2.20%	1.56%	0.57%	2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,899.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,183.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,016.40	635.25	381.15
Cash Retained (M)	3,183.00	3,183.00	3,183.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,016.40	-635.25	-381.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,166.60	2,547.75	2,801.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.06	15.06	15.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	143.86	169.17	186.04
LTM Dividend per Share	126.09	126.09	126.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	143.86	169.17	186.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	269.95	295.26	312.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Fair Value	$21,509.54	$62,654.15	$66,858.64
Upside / Downside	538.27%	1,759.17%	1,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,082.00	5,392.04	5,720.99	6,070.01	6,440.33	6,833.23	7,038.23
Payout Ratio	37.37%	47.89%	58.42%	68.95%	79.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,899.00	2,582.45	3,342.22	4,185.08	5,118.35	6,149.91	6,510.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,403.79	2,426.66	2,449.53
Year 2 PV (M)	2,895.78	2,951.15	3,007.04
Year 3 PV (M)	3,375.20	3,472.46	3,571.57
Year 4 PV (M)	3,842.29	3,990.62	4,143.21
Year 5 PV (M)	4,297.29	4,505.65	4,722.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133,025.75	139,475.81	146,173.69
Equity Value (M)	149,840.09	156,822.36	164,067.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.06	15.06	15.06
Fair Value	$9,949.17	$10,412.78	$10,893.82
Upside / Downside	195.23%	208.98%	223.26%

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Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (1954.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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