Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SITC International Holdings Company Limited (1308.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.62 - $139.17$130.42
Multi-Stage$20.86 - $22.81$21.82
Blended Fair Value$76.12
Current Price$3.20
Upside2,278.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.05%20.93%0.210.280.590.210.100.060.060.030.020.03
YoY Growth---25.85%-52.23%185.20%102.79%81.57%-1.91%73.57%63.28%-27.26%-11.08%
Dividend Yield--7.80%16.18%26.40%5.68%4.67%4.57%6.04%3.31%3.30%5.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,879.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,250.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)629.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)375.88234.93140.96
Cash Retained (M)629.36629.36629.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-375.88-234.93-140.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.48394.44488.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.672,685.672,685.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.62$130.42$139.17
Upside / Downside1,732.00%3,975.76%4,249.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,879.422,001.582,131.682,270.242,417.812,574.962,652.21
Payout Ratio66.51%71.21%75.91%80.61%85.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,250.051,425.331,618.111,829.932,062.452,317.472,453.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,325.681,338.241,350.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,399.761,426.421,453.33
Year 3 PV (M)1,472.321,514.591,557.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,543.391,602.741,663.79
Year 5 PV (M)1,612.971,690.881,771.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,681.9751,033.3353,474.67
Equity Value (M)56,036.0958,606.2061,272.03
Shares Outstanding (M)2,685.672,685.672,685.67
Fair Value$20.86$21.82$22.81
Upside / Downside552.03%581.93%612.95%

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