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Definitive Analysis

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Dongguan Aohai Technology Co., Ltd. (002993.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.07 - $26.20$21.33
Multi-Stage$38.46 - $42.26$40.32
Blended Fair Value$30.82
Current Price$45.79
Upside-32.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.220.600.180.200.010.000.000.260.170.00
YoY Growth--102.40%239.25%-10.02%2,492.68%0.00%0.00%-100.00%52.83%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.94%1.86%0.53%0.71%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)522.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)416.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.5865.3639.22
Cash Retained (M)106.88106.88106.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.58-65.36-39.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.2941.5167.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.36277.36277.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.150.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.150.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.511.651.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.07$21.33$26.20
Upside / Downside-62.71%-53.42%-42.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)522.92517.69512.51507.38502.31497.29512.21
Payout Ratio79.56%81.65%83.74%85.82%87.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)416.04422.69429.16435.46441.59447.56473.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)392.30396.30400.31
Year 2 PV (M)369.67377.26384.92
Year 3 PV (M)348.14358.90369.89
Year 4 PV (M)327.66341.24355.24
Year 5 PV (M)308.21324.26340.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,921.209,385.759,869.45
Equity Value (M)10,667.1911,183.7211,720.78
Shares Outstanding (M)277.36277.36277.36
Fair Value$38.46$40.32$42.26
Upside / Downside-16.01%-11.94%-7.71%

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