DDM Analysis: 002953.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.98 - $30.79	$15.95
Multi-Stage	$6.62 - $7.24	$6.92
Blended Fair Value	$11.44
Current Price	$13.07
Upside	-12.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.57%	1.89%	0.12	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	148.98%	-13.16%	16.65%	1.03%	0.00%	-14.07%	20.04%	96.81%	-54.13%	-49.16%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.07%	0.51%	0.57%	0.56%	0.53%	0.26%	0.83%	0.69%	0.35%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	173.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	117.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.75	21.72	13.03
Cash Retained (M)	117.12	117.12	117.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.75	-21.72	-13.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)	82.37	95.40	104.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	454.12	454.12	454.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.21	0.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.33	0.35
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.98	$15.95	$30.79
Upside / Downside	-23.64%	22.02%	135.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	173.73	185.03	197.05	209.86	223.50	238.03	245.17
Payout Ratio	32.59%	44.07%	55.55%	67.04%	78.52%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.62	81.54	109.47	140.68	175.49	214.23	226.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.74%	8.74%	8.74%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	74.29	74.99	75.70
Year 2 PV (M)	90.86	92.59	94.33
Year 3 PV (M)	106.37	109.43	112.54
Year 4 PV (M)	120.89	125.53	130.32
Year 5 PV (M)	134.44	140.93	147.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,481.41	2,601.27	2,725.71
Equity Value (M)	3,008.25	3,144.74	3,286.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	454.12	454.12	454.12
Fair Value	$6.62	$6.92	$7.24
Upside / Downside	-49.32%	-47.02%	-44.63%

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Guangdong Rifeng Electric Cable Co., Ltd. (002953.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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