DDM Analysis: 002949.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$39.31 - $85.24	$79.88
Multi-Stage	$13.24 - $14.47	$13.85
Blended Fair Value	$46.86
Current Price	$15.80
Upside	196.61%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.15%	86.34%	0.83	0.32	0.32	0.41	0.21	0.29	0.15	0.36	0.15	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	158.38%	0.57%	-21.94%	93.78%	-27.94%	96.46%	-58.88%	150.63%	640.02%	1,089.71%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.10%	2.65%	2.19%	2.67%	1.03%	1.72%	0.51%	2.41%	0.96%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	84.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	68.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	15.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.81	10.50	6.30
Cash Retained (M)	15.41	15.41	15.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.81	-10.50	-6.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1.39	4.91	9.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	196.04	196.04	196.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.03	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.03	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.38	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$39.31	$79.88	$85.24
Upside / Downside	148.81%	405.59%	439.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	84.03	89.49	95.31	101.50	108.10	115.12	118.58
Payout Ratio	81.66%	83.33%	85.00%	86.66%	88.33%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	68.61	74.57	81.00	87.96	95.48	103.61	109.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	69.41	70.07	70.73
Year 2 PV (M)	70.19	71.53	72.88
Year 3 PV (M)	70.95	72.98	75.06
Year 4 PV (M)	71.69	74.45	77.28
Year 5 PV (M)	72.41	75.91	79.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,241.24	2,349.49	2,461.89
Equity Value (M)	2,595.89	2,714.43	2,837.37
Shares Outstanding (M)	196.04	196.04	196.04
Fair Value	$13.24	$13.85	$14.47
Upside / Downside	-16.19%	-12.37%	-8.40%

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Shenzhen Capol International & Associatesco., Ltd (002949.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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