DDM Analysis: 002907.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.20 - $35.08	$32.88
Multi-Stage	$7.45 - $8.17	$7.80
Blended Fair Value	$20.34
Current Price	$16.32
Upside	24.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.05%	21.14%	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.05	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	17.67%	30.92%	71.96%	-30.84%	30.56%	-49.89%	2,594.63%	-55.83%	-29.36%	-32.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.64%	0.51%	0.31%	0.20%	0.37%	0.19%	0.30%	0.01%	0.09%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	74.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	56.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	18.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	14.92	9.33	5.60
Cash Retained (M)	18.23	18.23	18.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-14.92	-9.33	-5.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.31	8.91	12.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	5.39%	5.39%	5.39%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Fair Value	$12.20	$32.88	$35.08
Upside / Downside	-25.24%	101.44%	114.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	74.61	78.46	82.52	86.78	91.27	95.98	98.86
Payout Ratio	75.56%	78.45%	81.34%	84.22%	87.11%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	56.38	61.55	67.12	73.09	79.50	86.38	91.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.39%	5.39%	5.39%
Growth Rate	4.17%	5.17%	6.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	57.85	58.41	58.96
Year 2 PV (M)	59.29	60.43	61.59
Year 3 PV (M)	60.68	62.45	64.24
Year 4 PV (M)	62.04	64.45	66.94
Year 5 PV (M)	63.35	66.45	69.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,809.62	2,947.09	3,089.90
Equity Value (M)	3,112.83	3,259.28	3,411.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	417.68	417.68	417.68
Fair Value	$7.45	$7.80	$8.17
Upside / Downside	-54.33%	-52.19%	-49.96%

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Chongqing Pharscin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002907.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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