DDM Analysis: 002893.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.81 - $9.21	$6.58
Multi-Stage	$7.94 - $8.72	$8.32
Blended Fair Value	$7.45
Current Price	$11.26
Upside	-33.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.54%	5.51%	0.12	0.09	0.12	0.10	0.06	0.20	0.12	0.06	0.05	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	28.34%	-26.24%	19.90%	74.29%	-71.03%	76.05%	81.21%	19.54%	-20.37%	-1.80%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.18%	0.88%	1.38%	1.23%	0.45%	2.60%	1.18%	0.42%	0.73%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	81.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	35.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)	46.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.39	10.24	6.15
Cash Retained (M)	46.86	46.86	46.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.39	-10.24	-6.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.47	36.61	40.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	264.21	264.21	264.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Fair Value	$4.81	$6.58	$9.21
Upside / Downside	-57.25%	-41.56%	-18.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	81.94	83.64	85.38	87.15	88.95	90.80	93.52
Payout Ratio	42.82%	52.25%	61.69%	71.13%	80.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	35.09	43.71	52.67	61.98	71.66	81.72	86.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.72	41.12	41.53
Year 2 PV (M)	45.72	46.63	47.54
Year 3 PV (M)	50.13	51.63	53.16
Year 4 PV (M)	53.99	56.16	58.39
Year 5 PV (M)	57.36	60.25	63.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,849.22	1,942.53	2,039.56
Equity Value (M)	2,097.13	2,198.32	2,303.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	264.21	264.21	264.21
Fair Value	$7.94	$8.32	$8.72
Upside / Downside	-29.51%	-26.11%	-22.57%

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Beijing Jingneng Thermal Co. Ltd. Class A (002893.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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