DDM Analysis: 002830.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.32 - $11.43	$7.58
Multi-Stage	$7.59 - $8.32	$7.95
Blended Fair Value	$7.77
Current Price	$16.98
Upside	-54.26%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.25%	7.77%	0.23	0.11	0.14	0.11	0.12	0.15	0.11	0.12	0.10	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	98.21%	-20.00%	25.00%	-7.69%	-18.75%	33.33%	-3.88%	14.81%	-3.33%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.82%	0.96%	1.11%	0.89%	1.04%	1.22%	0.64%	0.58%	0.32%	0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	40.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.10	5.06	3.04
Cash Retained (M)	7.57	7.57	7.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.10	-5.06	-3.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.53	2.51	4.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	140.44	140.44	140.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.23	0.25	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.99%	2.99%	3.99%
Fair Value	$5.32	$7.58	$11.43
Upside / Downside	-68.70%	-55.34%	-32.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	40.49	41.70	42.95	44.23	45.56	46.92	48.33
Payout Ratio	81.30%	83.04%	84.78%	86.52%	88.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.92	34.63	36.41	38.27	40.21	42.23	44.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.99%	2.99%	3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)	32.22	32.54	32.85
Year 2 PV (M)	31.53	32.15	32.78
Year 3 PV (M)	30.84	31.75	32.69
Year 4 PV (M)	30.15	31.35	32.59
Year 5 PV (M)	29.47	30.94	32.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	912.08	957.68	1,005.08
Equity Value (M)	1,066.29	1,116.41	1,168.46
Shares Outstanding (M)	140.44	140.44	140.44
Fair Value	$7.59	$7.95	$8.32
Upside / Downside	-55.29%	-53.19%	-51.00%

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Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co., Ltd. (002830.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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