DDM Analysis: 002703.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.47 - $9.85	$6.43
Multi-Stage	$3.25 - $3.55	$3.40
Blended Fair Value	$4.91
Current Price	$14.05
Upside	-65.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	51.67%	-4.65%	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	234.34%	49.02%	9.27%	4.99%	40.43%	107.15%	-95.43%	-0.84%	-15.87%	-2.12%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.24%	0.06%	0.07%	0.10%	0.10%	0.08%	0.03%	0.61%	0.30%	0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	186.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	49.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	136.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.36	23.35	14.01
Cash Retained (M)	136.90	136.90	136.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.36	-23.35	-14.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)	99.53	113.55	122.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	822.78	822.78	822.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.14	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.20	0.21
WACC / Discount Rate	9.79%	9.79%	9.79%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$4.47	$6.43	$9.85
Upside / Downside	-68.22%	-54.25%	-29.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	186.82	198.96	211.89	225.66	240.33	255.95	263.63
Payout Ratio	26.72%	39.38%	52.03%	64.69%	77.34%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	49.92	78.34	110.25	145.98	185.88	230.36	243.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.79%	9.79%	9.79%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	70.69	71.36	72.03
Year 2 PV (M)	89.75	91.46	93.19
Year 3 PV (M)	107.22	110.30	113.44
Year 4 PV (M)	123.19	127.93	132.80
Year 5 PV (M)	137.74	144.40	151.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,147.03	2,250.73	2,358.40
Equity Value (M)	2,675.62	2,796.17	2,921.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	822.78	822.78	822.78
Fair Value	$3.25	$3.40	$3.55
Upside / Downside	-76.85%	-75.81%	-74.73%

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Zhejiang Shibao Company Limited (002703.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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