Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Roshow Technology Co., Ltd. (002617.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.29 - $8.54$5.00
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.46$2.35
Blended Fair Value$3.67
Current Price$9.28
Upside-60.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.83%23.71%0.040.040.060.070.080.070.010.010.010.00
YoY Growth---8.60%-27.41%-9.56%-16.63%6.51%864.75%-33.33%27.50%860.56%-80.00%
Dividend Yield--0.51%0.76%0.66%0.60%1.13%1.50%0.16%0.12%0.09%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)217.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0333.7720.26
Cash Retained (M)217.28217.28217.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.03-33.77-20.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.25183.51197.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.471,895.471,895.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.29$5.00$8.54
Upside / Downside-64.57%-46.17%-7.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.13287.68306.38326.30347.51370.10381.20
Payout Ratio19.56%33.65%47.74%61.83%75.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.8596.81146.26201.74263.80333.09352.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)87.8588.6989.52
Year 2 PV (M)120.45122.75125.07
Year 3 PV (M)150.77155.10159.51
Year 4 PV (M)178.92185.80192.88
Year 5 PV (M)205.01214.92225.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,524.113,694.333,871.06
Equity Value (M)4,267.134,461.584,663.23
Shares Outstanding (M)1,895.471,895.471,895.47
Fair Value$2.25$2.35$2.46
Upside / Downside-75.74%-74.64%-73.49%

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