Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen KSTAR Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (002518.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.95 - $164.89$154.52
Multi-Stage$94.53 - $103.75$99.05
Blended Fair Value$126.79
Current Price$41.29
Upside207.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.45%28.93%0.450.350.250.200.200.200.200.160.130.07
YoY Growth--29.20%37.67%25.46%-0.93%1.10%0.98%28.97%20.80%71.48%110.50%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.41%0.54%1.09%1.57%1.74%1.51%0.95%0.86%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)483.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)348.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.6360.4036.24
Cash Retained (M)348.30348.30348.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.63-60.40-36.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)251.67287.91312.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.76582.76582.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate2.43%2.43%2.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.95$154.52$164.89
Upside / Downside238.95%274.24%299.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)483.17514.58548.02583.65621.58661.99681.85
Payout Ratio27.91%40.33%52.75%65.17%77.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.87207.53289.07380.33482.24595.79630.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.43%2.43%2.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)200.70202.60204.50
Year 2 PV (M)270.35275.50280.70
Year 3 PV (M)343.99353.86363.93
Year 4 PV (M)421.80438.02454.70
Year 5 PV (M)503.96528.30553.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,349.3455,926.1358,601.55
Equity Value (M)55,090.1357,724.4160,458.95
Shares Outstanding (M)582.76582.76582.76
Fair Value$94.53$99.05$103.75
Upside / Downside128.95%139.90%151.26%

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