Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (002497.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.32 - $15.87$10.48
Multi-Stage$5.34 - $5.84$5.59
Blended Fair Value$8.03
Current Price$14.87
Upside-45.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.69%-3.51%0.070.470.030.040.010.020.020.040.050.04
YoY Growth---84.37%1,457.29%-17.44%194.57%-25.11%-1.39%-60.00%-16.67%20.00%-60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%4.29%0.14%0.13%0.07%0.24%0.20%0.31%0.55%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)436.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)334.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.3054.5632.74
Cash Retained (M)334.09334.09334.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.30-54.56-32.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)246.79279.53301.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.32$10.48$15.87
Upside / Downside-50.75%-29.54%6.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)436.50464.87495.08527.26561.54598.04615.98
Payout Ratio23.46%36.77%50.08%63.38%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.41170.93247.92334.20430.65538.23569.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)154.09155.55157.02
Year 2 PV (M)201.50205.33209.21
Year 3 PV (M)244.87251.90259.07
Year 4 PV (M)284.47295.41306.66
Year 5 PV (M)320.52336.00352.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,930.625,168.775,416.04
Equity Value (M)6,136.086,412.986,700.07
Shares Outstanding (M)1,148.031,148.031,148.03
Fair Value$5.34$5.59$5.84
Upside / Downside-64.06%-62.43%-60.75%

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