DDM Analysis: 002461.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$17.33 - $84.12	$37.20
Multi-Stage	$12.78 - $14.00	$13.38
Blended Fair Value	$25.29
Current Price	$10.01
Upside	152.65%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.23%	23.43%	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.13	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	0.64%	-0.65%	-0.19%	19.95%	-6.71%	131.41%	67.45%	95.35%	-8.08%	5.66%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.29%	1.62%	1.37%	1.69%	1.05%	1.68%	0.74%	0.58%	0.23%	0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	947.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	383.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	563.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	189.56	118.48	71.09
Cash Retained (M)	563.83	563.83	563.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-189.56	-118.48	-71.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)	374.26	445.35	492.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,213.69	2,213.69	2,213.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.20	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.34	0.37	0.40
WACC / Discount Rate	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%
Growth Rate	4.19%	5.19%	6.19%
Fair Value	$17.33	$37.20	$84.12
Upside / Downside	73.13%	271.63%	740.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	947.81	997.04	1,048.83	1,103.31	1,160.61	1,220.90	1,257.52
Payout Ratio	40.51%	50.41%	60.31%	70.21%	80.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	383.99	502.61	632.53	774.58	929.68	1,098.81	1,163.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.25%	6.25%	6.25%
Growth Rate	4.19%	5.19%	6.19%
Year 1 PV (M)	468.53	473.03	477.53
Year 2 PV (M)	549.66	560.26	570.97
Year 3 PV (M)	627.47	645.71	664.30
Year 4 PV (M)	702.05	729.39	757.53
Year 5 PV (M)	773.51	811.35	850.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	25,168.31	26,399.47	27,678.36
Equity Value (M)	28,289.53	29,619.21	30,999.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,213.69	2,213.69	2,213.69
Fair Value	$12.78	$13.38	$14.00
Upside / Downside	27.67%	33.67%	39.89%

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Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co., Ltd (002461.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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