Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changgao Electric Group Co., Ltd. (002452.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.44 - $88.88$83.29
Multi-Stage$53.54 - $58.76$56.10
Blended Fair Value$69.70
Current Price$7.70
Upside805.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.63%13.92%0.080.030.080.100.100.020.040.050.070.04
YoY Growth--151.82%-61.82%-18.37%-4.36%387.58%-45.62%-15.75%-31.61%59.44%101.35%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.46%1.26%1.40%1.85%0.37%0.85%0.82%0.82%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)273.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.7534.2220.53
Cash Retained (M)220.57220.57220.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.75-34.22-20.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.82186.35200.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)612.57612.57612.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.44$83.29$88.88
Upside / Downside879.73%981.74%1,054.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)273.77291.56310.52330.70352.19375.09386.34
Payout Ratio19.43%33.55%47.66%61.77%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.2097.81147.99204.28267.27337.58357.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.39%1.39%1.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)95.5696.4797.37
Year 2 PV (M)141.28143.97146.69
Year 3 PV (M)190.55196.02201.59
Year 4 PV (M)243.58252.95262.59
Year 5 PV (M)300.61315.13330.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,822.9433,360.0034,955.89
Equity Value (M)32,794.5234,364.5435,994.33
Shares Outstanding (M)612.57612.57612.57
Fair Value$53.54$56.10$58.76
Upside / Downside595.27%628.55%663.10%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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