DDM Analysis: 002378.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.60 - $14.13	$7.34
Multi-Stage	$4.06 - $4.44	$4.24
Blended Fair Value	$5.79
Current Price	$12.40
Upside	-53.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.87%	3.93%	0.13	0.15	0.14	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-18.10%	11.28%	121.82%	-4.35%	-5.27%	6.89%	21.81%	72.29%	-13.97%	-58.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.86%	2.66%	2.26%	1.06%	0.98%	2.14%	1.21%	0.82%	0.41%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	215.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	142.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	73.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.11	26.95	16.17
Cash Retained (M)	73.13	73.13	73.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.11	-26.95	-16.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)	30.01	46.18	56.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,201.42	1,201.42	1,201.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.16	0.17
WACC / Discount Rate	7.31%	7.31%	7.31%
Growth Rate	4.06%	5.06%	6.06%
Fair Value	$4.60	$7.34	$14.13
Upside / Downside	-62.89%	-40.77%	13.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	215.57	226.49	237.96	250.01	262.67	275.97	284.25
Payout Ratio	66.08%	70.86%	75.65%	80.43%	85.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	142.45	160.49	180.01	201.08	223.83	248.37	262.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.31%	7.31%	7.31%
Growth Rate	4.06%	5.06%	6.06%
Year 1 PV (M)	148.14	149.56	150.99
Year 2 PV (M)	153.36	156.32	159.31
Year 3 PV (M)	158.12	162.73	167.42
Year 4 PV (M)	162.46	168.80	175.32
Year 5 PV (M)	166.39	174.54	183.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,087.16	4,287.35	4,495.31
Equity Value (M)	4,875.64	5,099.30	5,331.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,201.42	1,201.42	1,201.42
Fair Value	$4.06	$4.24	$4.44
Upside / Downside	-67.27%	-65.77%	-64.21%

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Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. (002378.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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