Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric Co., Ltd (002364.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.47 - $34.75$32.55
Multi-Stage$17.68 - $19.46$18.55
Blended Fair Value$25.55
Current Price$28.27
Upside-9.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.68%0.79%0.050.000.110.110.130.100.110.110.040.02
YoY Growth--2,534.24%-98.19%-2.83%-8.86%20.35%-1.31%0.00%147.55%128.07%-61.77%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.03%1.42%1.29%1.38%0.83%0.89%1.00%0.24%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2412.037.22
Cash Retained (M)40.0140.0140.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.24-12.03-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.7727.9832.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)533.33533.33533.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate2.34%2.34%2.34%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Fair Value$29.47$32.55$34.75
Upside / Downside4.25%15.14%22.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.2299.20102.28105.45108.72112.09115.45
Payout Ratio58.42%64.73%71.05%77.37%83.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.2164.2272.6781.5890.98100.88106.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.34%2.34%2.34%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Year 1 PV (M)62.1462.7563.36
Year 2 PV (M)68.0569.3970.74
Year 3 PV (M)73.9376.1278.36
Year 4 PV (M)79.7882.9586.21
Year 5 PV (M)85.6089.8794.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,061.539,514.079,984.51
Equity Value (M)9,431.029,895.1510,377.49
Shares Outstanding (M)533.33533.33533.33
Fair Value$17.68$18.55$19.46
Upside / Downside-37.45%-34.37%-31.17%

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