Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huafon Chemical Co., Ltd. (002064.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.57 - $66.36$62.19
Multi-Stage$9.88 - $10.81$10.33
Blended Fair Value$36.26
Current Price$9.12
Upside297.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.97%26.10%0.160.170.320.110.060.090.300.010.020.02
YoY Growth---4.77%-46.02%189.58%69.43%-27.03%-70.18%2,438.22%-46.13%7.84%25.64%
Dividend Yield--2.10%2.43%4.26%1.20%0.55%1.89%5.51%0.24%0.42%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,666.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)763.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)903.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.37208.36125.01
Cash Retained (M)903.02903.02903.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.37-208.36-125.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)569.65694.67778.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.534,995.534,995.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.57$62.19$66.36
Upside / Downside213.22%581.88%627.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,666.851,775.201,890.582,013.472,144.352,283.732,352.24
Payout Ratio45.82%54.66%63.49%72.33%81.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)763.83970.321,200.421,456.341,740.462,055.362,175.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)902.66911.22919.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,038.861,058.641,078.62
Year 3 PV (M)1,172.451,206.111,240.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,303.491,353.621,405.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,432.001,501.161,572.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,487.8345,588.3147,769.18
Equity Value (M)49,337.2851,619.0653,986.13
Shares Outstanding (M)4,995.534,995.534,995.53
Fair Value$9.88$10.33$10.81
Upside / Downside8.29%13.30%18.50%

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