DDM Analysis: 002051.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.68 - $2.43	$2.04
Multi-Stage	$3.57 - $3.94	$3.75
Blended Fair Value	$2.90
Current Price	$8.28
Upside	-65.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.01%	-1.47%	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.02	0.17	0.32	0.38	0.28	0.20	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	11.62%	28.44%	585.61%	-89.85%	-47.13%	-14.78%	36.66%	39.05%	-9.05%	11.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.12%	2.01%	1.12%	0.20%	2.31%	3.92%	2.39%	1.72%	0.85%	1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	231.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.95	35.59	21.36
Cash Retained (M)	231.36	231.36	231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.95	-35.59	-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	174.41	195.77	210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	7.27%	7.27%	7.27%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Fair Value	$1.68	$2.04	$2.43
Upside / Downside	-79.75%	-75.33%	-70.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	284.74	277.71	270.86	264.18	257.66	251.30	258.84
Payout Ratio	18.75%	33.00%	47.25%	61.50%	75.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53.38	91.64	127.98	162.47	195.17	226.17	239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.27%	7.27%	7.27%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	84.55	85.43	86.31
Year 2 PV (M)	108.95	111.22	113.51
Year 3 PV (M)	127.62	131.63	135.72
Year 4 PV (M)	141.46	147.41	153.55
Year 5 PV (M)	151.25	159.25	167.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,751.34	3,949.71	4,156.39
Equity Value (M)	4,365.18	4,584.65	4,813.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
Fair Value	$3.57	$3.75	$3.94
Upside / Downside	-56.85%	-54.68%	-52.42%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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