Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Nanjing Port Co., Ltd. (002040.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.67 - $11.01$7.79
Multi-Stage$5.16 - $5.65$5.40
Blended Fair Value$6.59
Current Price$10.10
Upside-34.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.66%13.06%0.140.110.100.110.140.160.300.370.070.05
YoY Growth--31.50%0.69%-7.48%-16.75%-14.32%-47.22%-18.53%442.76%37.60%21.60%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.67%1.53%1.72%2.14%2.57%3.24%4.23%0.37%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)151.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9021.1912.71
Cash Retained (M)151.62151.62151.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.90-21.19-12.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.71130.43138.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)489.40489.40489.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Fair Value$5.67$7.79$11.01
Upside / Downside-43.91%-22.89%8.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.52177.91186.73195.98205.68215.87222.35
Payout Ratio10.56%26.45%42.34%58.22%74.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.9047.0579.05114.10152.44194.29205.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.95%4.95%5.95%
Year 1 PV (M)42.7443.1543.56
Year 2 PV (M)65.2366.4967.76
Year 3 PV (M)85.5388.0290.56
Year 4 PV (M)103.79107.84112.01
Year 5 PV (M)120.16126.05132.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,106.812,210.112,317.42
Equity Value (M)2,524.252,641.662,763.49
Shares Outstanding (M)489.40489.40489.40
Fair Value$5.16$5.40$5.65
Upside / Downside-48.93%-46.56%-44.09%

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