Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hunan Valin Wire & Cable Co.,Ltd. (001208.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.50 - $42.63$14.15
Multi-Stage$4.41 - $4.82$4.61
Blended Fair Value$9.38
Current Price$12.26
Upside-23.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS22.39%0.00%0.100.090.070.140.030.030.050.060.000.00
YoY Growth--1.22%34.01%-48.38%383.29%-18.83%-35.95%-16.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.16%0.69%1.17%0.53%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)69.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.9914.378.62
Cash Retained (M)69.3569.3569.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.99-14.37-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.3654.9860.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)536.37536.37536.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.50$14.15$42.63
Upside / Downside-38.82%15.40%247.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.96122.44130.40138.87147.90157.51162.24
Payout Ratio39.68%49.74%59.81%69.87%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.6260.9077.9997.03118.22141.76150.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.91%7.91%7.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)55.9156.4456.97
Year 2 PV (M)65.7266.9768.23
Year 3 PV (M)75.0677.2279.41
Year 4 PV (M)83.9587.1890.50
Year 5 PV (M)92.4196.88101.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,991.712,087.912,187.79
Equity Value (M)2,364.762,472.592,584.42
Shares Outstanding (M)536.37536.37536.37
Fair Value$4.41$4.61$4.82
Upside / Downside-64.04%-62.40%-60.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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