Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Foshan Electrical and Lighting Co.,Ltd (000541.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.56 - $10.64$6.69
Multi-Stage$3.16 - $3.46$3.31
Blended Fair Value$5.00
Current Price$6.33
Upside-21.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.52%2.59%0.130.090.090.090.170.140.270.350.010.14
YoY Growth--49.88%0.00%-0.70%-47.52%18.59%-47.84%-21.67%3,260.00%-92.61%37.50%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.48%1.54%1.69%2.68%3.14%4.39%4.40%0.11%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2542.0325.22
Cash Retained (M)324.44324.44324.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.25-42.03-25.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.19282.41299.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,542.051,542.051,542.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.56$6.69$10.64
Upside / Downside-27.98%5.70%68.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.27358.13381.40406.20432.60460.72474.54
Payout Ratio3.52%20.81%38.11%55.41%72.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8274.54145.35225.06314.51414.65438.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.4168.0568.69
Year 2 PV (M)118.88121.14123.43
Year 3 PV (M)166.46171.24176.11
Year 4 PV (M)210.38218.47226.79
Year 5 PV (M)250.83262.95275.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,062.004,258.204,461.90
Equity Value (M)4,875.975,100.055,332.45
Shares Outstanding (M)1,542.051,542.051,542.05
Fair Value$3.16$3.31$3.46
Upside / Downside-50.05%-47.75%-45.37%

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