Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangxi Liugong Machinery Co., Ltd. (000528.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.76 - $129.56$121.42
Multi-Stage$17.30 - $18.92$18.10
Blended Fair Value$69.76
Current Price$11.06
Upside530.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.87%2.61%0.310.210.220.290.200.170.160.160.160.18
YoY Growth--48.50%-2.92%-24.27%42.95%17.40%4.90%2.59%-2.82%-10.93%-24.20%
Dividend Yield--2.80%2.45%3.20%4.41%2.03%2.73%2.03%2.32%2.39%3.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,464.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)746.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)717.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)292.80183.00109.80
Cash Retained (M)717.43717.43717.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-292.80-183.00-109.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)424.62534.42607.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,247.172,247.172,247.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.76$121.42$129.56
Upside / Downside259.50%997.84%1,071.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,464.011,559.171,660.511,768.451,883.402,005.822,065.99
Payout Ratio51.00%58.80%66.60%74.40%82.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)746.58916.741,105.861,315.691,548.141,805.231,911.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)849.65857.70865.76
Year 2 PV (M)949.92968.02986.28
Year 3 PV (M)1,047.461,077.531,108.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,142.321,186.251,231.43
Year 5 PV (M)1,234.541,294.171,356.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,657.7835,283.4636,971.37
Equity Value (M)38,881.6840,667.1442,519.09
Shares Outstanding (M)2,247.172,247.172,247.17
Fair Value$17.30$18.10$18.92
Upside / Downside56.44%63.63%71.08%

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