Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. (KKRS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.74 - $256.05$171.40
Multi-Stage$86.94 - $95.02$90.91
Blended Fair Value$131.15
Current Price$18.26
Upside618.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.96%-2.46%0.660.660.550.450.380.330.380.370.330.76
YoY Growth---0.48%19.81%22.33%18.58%16.08%-14.30%3.00%12.25%-56.46%-9.99%
Dividend Yield--3.69%3.30%2.98%2.05%1.47%1.27%1.48%1.43%1.28%2.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,000.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)456.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,543.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,200.00750.00450.00
Cash Retained (M)5,543.255,543.255,543.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,200.00-750.00-450.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,343.254,793.255,093.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)932.05932.05932.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.665.145.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.665.145.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.155.635.95
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$120.74$171.40$256.05
Upside / Downside561.22%838.65%1,302.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,000.016,390.016,805.367,247.717,718.818,220.548,467.15
Payout Ratio7.61%24.09%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)456.761,539.362,760.774,134.465,675.077,398.487,832.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,386.281,399.421,412.56
Year 2 PV (M)2,238.992,281.632,324.68
Year 3 PV (M)3,019.603,106.283,194.61
Year 4 PV (M)3,732.603,876.154,023.79
Year 5 PV (M)4,382.214,593.884,813.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)66,272.2969,473.2772,796.75
Equity Value (M)81,031.9884,730.6388,566.04
Shares Outstanding (M)932.05932.05932.05
Fair Value$86.94$90.91$95.02
Upside / Downside376.12%397.85%420.39%

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