Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianshan Material Co., Ltd. (000877.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.63 - $53.36$50.01
Multi-Stage$7.39 - $8.07$7.72
Blended Fair Value$28.87
Current Price$6.02
Upside379.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.58%19.25%0.560.762.091.780.770.080.050.060.060.09
YoY Growth---26.92%-63.65%17.67%130.06%873.18%67.17%-16.69%-11.83%-25.60%-9.06%
Dividend Yield--10.02%10.91%23.62%13.49%4.51%0.70%0.38%0.54%0.43%1.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,968.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,845.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)393.79246.12147.67
Cash Retained (M)123.26123.26123.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-393.79-246.12-147.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-270.53-122.86-24.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.020.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.63$50.01$53.36
Upside / Downside176.28%730.69%786.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,968.962,096.942,233.242,378.402,533.002,697.642,778.57
Payout Ratio93.74%92.99%92.24%91.50%90.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,845.701,949.982,060.032,176.142,298.642,427.882,570.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.86%6.86%6.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,807.641,824.771,841.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,770.251,803.971,838.01
Year 3 PV (M)1,733.531,783.291,834.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,697.451,762.731,829.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,662.011,742.281,825.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,562.2447,762.9150,047.81
Equity Value (M)54,233.1256,679.9659,217.23
Shares Outstanding (M)7,338.227,338.227,338.22
Fair Value$7.39$7.72$8.07
Upside / Downside22.77%28.30%34.05%

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