Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Publicis Groupe S.A. (PUB.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$316.41 - $925.90$498.15
Multi-Stage$216.90 - $236.70$226.62
Blended Fair Value$362.38
Current Price$95.68
Upside278.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.51%22.62%3.372.870.330.900.401.130.830.670.760.95
YoY Growth--17.49%772.60%-63.35%122.55%-64.21%35.71%23.53%-11.92%-19.58%116.22%
Dividend Yield--3.28%3.42%0.55%1.52%0.99%2.79%1.66%1.22%1.16%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,173.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,579.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,594.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)634.60396.63237.98
Cash Retained (M)1,594.001,594.001,594.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-634.60-396.63-237.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)959.401,197.381,356.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.80252.80252.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.804.745.36
LTM Dividend per Share6.256.256.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.804.745.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0410.9811.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$316.41$498.15$925.90
Upside / Downside230.70%420.64%867.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,173.003,379.253,598.903,832.824,081.964,347.284,477.70
Payout Ratio49.76%57.81%65.86%73.91%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,579.001,953.572,370.172,832.673,345.283,912.564,141.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,777.921,794.771,811.62
Year 2 PV (M)1,963.112,000.502,038.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,135.222,196.522,258.97
Year 4 PV (M)2,294.892,383.152,473.92
Year 5 PV (M)2,442.722,560.702,683.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,218.6546,354.4248,571.94
Equity Value (M)54,832.5157,290.0659,837.91
Shares Outstanding (M)252.80252.80252.80
Fair Value$216.90$226.62$236.70
Upside / Downside126.69%136.85%147.39%

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