Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$144.70 - $542.59$243.20
Multi-Stage$455.98 - $502.25$478.66
Blended Fair Value$360.93
Current Price$66.06
Upside446.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.44%5.81%4.064.023.913.823.733.603.212.852.672.48
YoY Growth--0.97%2.73%2.37%2.48%3.64%12.08%12.65%6.54%7.97%7.37%
Dividend Yield--6.76%9.29%8.76%7.31%7.28%9.30%5.56%4.57%3.74%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,869.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,385.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)484.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,773.801,108.63665.18
Cash Retained (M)484.00484.00484.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,773.80-1,108.63-665.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,289.80-624.63-181.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share4.974.974.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.204.604.86
WACC / Discount Rate3.35%3.35%3.35%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Fair Value$144.70$243.20$542.59
Upside / Downside119.04%268.15%721.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,869.008,996.339,125.499,256.509,389.409,524.209,809.92
Payout Ratio94.54%93.63%92.73%91.82%90.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,385.008,423.658,461.678,499.058,535.768,571.789,074.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.35%3.35%3.35%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)8,070.008,150.358,230.70
Year 2 PV (M)7,766.107,921.518,078.47
Year 3 PV (M)7,472.927,698.377,928.30
Year 4 PV (M)7,190.117,480.777,780.16
Year 5 PV (M)6,917.317,268.607,634.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)732,274.42769,462.51808,146.34
Equity Value (M)769,690.85807,982.11847,798.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
Fair Value$455.98$478.66$502.25
Upside / Downside590.25%624.59%660.29%

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