Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Old Mutual Limited (OMU.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.01 - $20.27$17.70
Multi-Stage$32.84 - $36.15$34.46
Blended Fair Value$26.08
Current Price$12.04
Upside116.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.90%-7.16%0.760.830.770.600.751.202.231.271.612.18
YoY Growth---8.83%8.18%27.48%-19.73%-37.84%-45.98%75.84%-21.35%-25.99%37.09%
Dividend Yield--6.05%6.36%7.32%4.60%6.30%6.13%9.96%4.31%5.49%7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,482.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,083.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,399.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,896.401,810.251,086.15
Cash Retained (M)5,399.005,399.005,399.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,896.40-1,810.25-1,086.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,502.603,588.754,312.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,467.604,467.604,467.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.800.97
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.800.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.592.843.00
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-7.40%-6.40%-5.40%
Fair Value$15.01$17.70$20.27
Upside / Downside24.68%47.03%68.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,482.0013,555.3612,688.0111,876.1611,116.2510,404.9710,717.12
Payout Ratio62.72%68.18%73.63%79.09%84.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,083.009,241.429,342.389,392.589,398.119,364.489,913.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate-7.40%-6.40%-5.40%
Year 1 PV (M)8,418.818,509.738,600.64
Year 2 PV (M)7,753.227,921.578,091.74
Year 3 PV (M)7,101.047,333.587,571.15
Year 4 PV (M)6,472.766,756.927,050.33
Year 5 PV (M)5,875.506,199.676,538.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,103.23117,233.21123,630.82
Equity Value (M)146,724.56153,954.68161,482.68
Shares Outstanding (M)4,467.604,467.604,467.60
Fair Value$32.84$34.46$36.15
Upside / Downside172.77%186.21%200.21%

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