Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Samvardhana Motherson International Limited (MOTHERSON.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$64.38 - $149.89$94.40
Multi-Stage$45.43 - $49.64$47.50
Blended Fair Value$70.95
Current Price$105.65
Upside-32.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-9.47%10.07%0.540.420.280.450.000.890.390.400.000.56
YoY Growth--30.43%50.07%-37.81%94,380.00%-99.95%128.43%-1.50%26,168.75%-99.73%169.09%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.32%0.49%0.85%0.00%3.46%1.14%0.77%0.00%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,679.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,339.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,339.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,535.864,084.912,450.95
Cash Retained (M)27,339.6027,339.6027,339.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,535.86-4,084.91-2,450.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,803.7423,254.6924,888.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,581.2910,581.2910,581.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.972.202.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.972.202.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$64.38$94.40$149.89
Upside / Downside-39.06%-10.65%41.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,679.3034,803.4537,065.6839,474.9542,040.8244,773.4746,116.68
Payout Ratio16.34%31.07%45.80%60.54%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,339.7010,814.0516,977.5023,896.5131,643.2640,296.1342,657.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.55%9.55%9.55%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,778.759,871.449,964.13
Year 2 PV (M)13,882.3814,146.8014,413.72
Year 3 PV (M)17,669.3318,176.5518,693.39
Year 4 PV (M)21,157.3921,971.0422,807.94
Year 5 PV (M)24,363.4825,540.2426,762.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)393,834.29412,856.63432,607.01
Equity Value (M)480,685.62502,562.71525,248.23
Shares Outstanding (M)10,581.2910,581.2910,581.29
Fair Value$45.43$47.50$49.64
Upside / Downside-57.00%-55.04%-53.02%

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