Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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PT Emdeki Utama Tbk (MDKI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118.17 - $182.42$148.01
Multi-Stage$269.99 - $296.97$283.22
Blended Fair Value$215.61
Current Price$185.00
Upside16.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%12.0010.0010.0012.009.0012.0010.3614.620.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%0.00%-16.67%33.34%-25.00%15.78%-29.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.00%4.95%5.29%6.00%4.17%6.98%4.05%5.95%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,363.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,241.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,122.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,472.604,045.382,427.23
Cash Retained (M)12,122.0012,122.0012,122.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,472.60-4,045.38-2,427.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,649.408,076.639,694.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,530.152,530.152,530.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.233.193.83
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.233.193.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.2311.1911.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$118.17$148.01$182.42
Upside / Downside-36.12%-19.99%-1.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,363.0032,039.3731,718.9831,401.7931,087.7730,776.8931,700.20
Payout Ratio62.54%68.03%73.53%79.02%84.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,241.0021,797.9623,321.7524,812.8926,271.8827,699.2029,322.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20,263.4720,470.2420,677.01
Year 2 PV (M)20,153.8120,567.2120,984.81
Year 3 PV (M)19,932.9420,549.3821,178.40
Year 4 PV (M)19,619.2920,432.4121,270.56
Year 5 PV (M)19,229.0320,230.3321,272.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)583,923.06614,329.29645,989.18
Equity Value (M)683,121.60716,578.87751,372.88
Shares Outstanding (M)2,530.152,530.152,530.15
Fair Value$269.99$283.22$296.97
Upside / Downside45.94%53.09%60.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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