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Definitive Analysis

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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LISN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23,182.39 - $113,882.40$41,294.42
Multi-Stage$23,033.49 - $25,254.35$24,123.11
Blended Fair Value$32,708.77
Current Price$13,350.00
Upside145.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.32%8.07%178.64168.59157.76146.66231.90131.50124.06116.00103.9592.35
YoY Growth--5.96%6.86%7.57%-36.76%76.35%6.00%6.94%11.59%12.57%12.36%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.67%1.67%1.16%2.69%1.75%2.05%1.95%1.97%1.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,328.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)666.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)661.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)265.62166.0199.61
Cash Retained (M)661.60661.60661.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-265.62-166.01-99.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)395.98495.59561.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share219.89275.20312.08
LTM Dividend per Share370.11370.11370.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share219.89275.20312.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend590.00645.32682.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$23,182.39$41,294.42$113,882.40
Upside / Downside73.65%209.32%753.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,328.101,386.401,447.261,510.791,577.111,646.341,695.73
Payout Ratio50.18%58.15%66.11%74.07%82.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)666.50806.16956.791,119.101,293.811,481.701,568.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.02%6.02%6.02%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)753.09760.38767.66
Year 2 PV (M)834.97851.20867.59
Year 3 PV (M)912.33939.06966.30
Year 4 PV (M)985.331,024.011,063.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,054.141,106.121,160.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,938.9738,760.2640,652.68
Equity Value (M)41,478.8343,441.0245,478.17
Shares Outstanding (M)1.801.801.80
Fair Value$23,033.49$24,123.11$25,254.35
Upside / Downside72.54%80.70%89.17%

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