Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thonburi Medical Centre Public Company Limited (KDH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$495.86 - $1,554.95$1,457.21
Multi-Stage$207.77 - $227.37$217.39
Blended Fair Value$837.30
Current Price$85.00
Upside885.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%107.66%1.970.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--167.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3118.9411.37
Cash Retained (M)102.29102.29102.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.31-18.94-11.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.9883.3490.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.3819.3819.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.714.304.69
LTM Dividend per Share2.542.542.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.714.304.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.256.847.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$495.86$1,457.21$1,554.95
Upside / Downside483.37%1,614.37%1,729.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.56161.41171.90183.08194.98207.65213.88
Payout Ratio32.51%44.01%55.51%67.00%78.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.2771.0395.42122.67153.06186.89197.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.8766.4967.12
Year 2 PV (M)82.0483.6085.18
Year 3 PV (M)97.80100.61103.47
Year 4 PV (M)113.16117.51121.99
Year 5 PV (M)128.12134.31140.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,540.403,711.403,888.95
Equity Value (M)4,027.384,213.924,407.43
Shares Outstanding (M)19.3819.3819.38
Fair Value$207.77$217.39$227.37
Upside / Downside144.43%155.75%167.50%

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