Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gresham Technologies plc (GHT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.33 - $2.85$1.89
Multi-Stage$0.97 - $1.06$1.01
Blended Fair Value$1.45
Current Price$1.17
Upside24.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS13.12%0.00%0.010.010.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.64%19.16%3.16%49.26%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.41%0.36%0.40%0.32%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.190.740.45
Cash Retained (M)4.714.714.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.19-0.74-0.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.523.974.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)85.1885.1885.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.33$1.89$2.85
Upside / Downside13.56%61.80%143.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.966.356.767.207.668.168.41
Payout Ratio20.95%34.76%48.57%62.38%76.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.252.213.284.495.847.357.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1.992.012.02
Year 2 PV (M)2.662.722.77
Year 3 PV (M)3.283.383.47
Year 4 PV (M)3.854.004.15
Year 5 PV (M)4.364.574.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)66.5269.7373.07
Equity Value (M)82.6786.4090.27
Shares Outstanding (M)85.1885.1885.18
Fair Value$0.97$1.01$1.06
Upside / Downside-17.05%-13.31%-9.42%

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