Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ferguson plc (FERG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,663.13 - $1,959.45$1,836.29
Multi-Stage$428.95 - $470.17$449.18
Blended Fair Value$1,142.74
Current Price$248.50
Upside359.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.38%3.51%2.463.953.582.715.221.652.246.851.651.58
YoY Growth---37.63%10.27%32.16%-48.07%216.82%-26.52%-67.26%314.21%4.33%-9.21%
Dividend Yield--0.99%2.01%2.38%2.48%3.41%1.64%2.64%10.39%2.21%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,956.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)489.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,466.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.20244.50146.70
Cash Retained (M)1,466.261,466.261,466.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.20-244.50-146.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,075.061,221.761,319.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.888.629.11
WACC / Discount Rate5.38%5.38%5.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,663.13$1,836.29$1,959.45
Upside / Downside569.27%638.95%688.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,956.002,083.142,218.542,362.752,516.332,679.892,760.29
Payout Ratio25.04%38.03%51.02%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)489.74792.221,131.961,512.511,937.762,411.902,553.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.38%5.38%5.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)744.74751.80758.86
Year 2 PV (M)1,000.341,019.391,038.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,256.541,292.611,329.36
Year 4 PV (M)1,513.331,571.531,631.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,770.731,856.261,945.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,872.3482,681.9086,637.27
Equity Value (M)85,158.0189,173.4993,340.56
Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
Fair Value$428.95$449.18$470.17
Upside / Downside72.62%80.76%89.20%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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