Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Essity AB (publ) (ESSITY-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$262.50 - $487.57$354.71
Multi-Stage$434.63 - $477.28$455.55
Blended Fair Value$405.13
Current Price$245.80
Upside64.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.15%0.00%7.867.367.106.856.345.835.830.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.89%3.58%3.69%8.00%8.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.76%2.89%2.40%3.08%2.30%1.91%2.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,322.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,711.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,611.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,464.401,540.25924.15
Cash Retained (M)6,611.006,611.006,611.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,464.40-1,540.25-924.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,146.605,070.755,686.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)692.18692.18692.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.997.338.22
LTM Dividend per Share8.258.258.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.997.338.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.2415.5816.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Fair Value$262.50$354.71$487.57
Upside / Downside6.79%44.31%98.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,322.0012,562.2312,807.1413,056.8213,311.3813,570.8913,978.02
Payout Ratio46.35%55.08%63.81%72.54%81.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,711.006,919.078,172.089,471.3110,818.1012,213.8012,929.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate0.95%1.95%2.95%
Year 1 PV (M)6,437.506,501.276,565.04
Year 2 PV (M)7,074.107,214.957,357.18
Year 3 PV (M)7,628.137,857.078,090.55
Year 4 PV (M)8,106.408,432.418,768.16
Year 5 PV (M)8,515.258,945.449,392.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)263,076.70276,367.53290,190.18
Equity Value (M)300,838.09315,318.68330,363.96
Shares Outstanding (M)692.18692.18692.18
Fair Value$434.63$455.55$477.28
Upside / Downside76.82%85.33%94.18%

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