Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cogna Educação S.A. (COGN3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.55 - $10.10$8.20
Multi-Stage$13.88 - $15.30$14.58
Blended Fair Value$11.39
Current Price$3.34
Upside240.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.100.340.370.300.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-69.26%-7.73%22.65%115.95%-58.39%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.61%3.25%2.62%2.17%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,331.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,211.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.27166.4299.85
Cash Retained (M)1,211.041,211.041,211.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.27-166.42-99.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)944.781,044.631,111.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.560.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Fair Value$6.55$8.20$10.10
Upside / Downside95.97%145.42%202.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,331.341,319.511,307.781,296.161,284.641,273.221,311.41
Payout Ratio9.04%25.23%41.42%57.61%73.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.30332.89541.70746.77948.151,145.901,213.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-1.89%-0.89%0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)309.11312.26315.41
Year 2 PV (M)467.07476.64486.31
Year 3 PV (M)597.89616.36635.21
Year 4 PV (M)704.90734.08764.16
Year 5 PV (M)791.05832.20875.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,219.4224,427.1125,684.54
Equity Value (M)26,089.4527,398.6528,760.66
Shares Outstanding (M)1,879.221,879.221,879.22
Fair Value$13.88$14.58$15.30
Upside / Downside315.66%336.52%358.22%

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