Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk (CMRY.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,335.96 - $3,629.67$2,934.12
Multi-Stage$5,498.90 - $6,050.48$5,769.28
Blended Fair Value$4,351.70
Current Price$4,600.00
Upside-5.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%90.0070.0063.0250.410.000.006.300.000.000.00
YoY Growth--28.58%11.08%25.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%1.36%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,964,558.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,190,307.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)774,251.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)392,911.60245,569.75147,341.85
Cash Retained (M)774,251.00774,251.00774,251.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-392,911.60-245,569.75-147,341.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)381,339.40528,681.25626,909.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
LTM Dividend per Share150.01150.01150.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.0666.6379.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend198.07216.64229.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,335.96$2,934.12$3,629.67
Upside / Downside-49.22%-36.21%-21.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,964,558.001,944,912.421,925,463.301,906,208.661,887,146.581,868,275.111,924,323.36
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,190,307.001,292,807.381,393,138.721,491,334.151,587,426.371,681,447.601,779,999.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,203,792.831,216,076.431,228,360.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,207,897.891,232,674.641,257,702.93
Year 3 PV (M)1,204,006.291,241,241.001,279,235.58
Year 4 PV (M)1,193,343.061,242,801.551,293,781.71
Year 5 PV (M)1,176,990.591,238,279.221,302,094.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,646,009.5539,606,324.6141,647,464.78
Equity Value (M)43,632,040.2245,777,397.4648,008,639.86
Shares Outstanding (M)7,934.687,934.687,934.68
Fair Value$5,498.90$5,769.28$6,050.48
Upside / Downside19.54%25.42%31.53%

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