Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Carabao Group Public Company Limited (CBG-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.94 - $586.00$469.72
Multi-Stage$82.86 - $90.68$86.70
Blended Fair Value$278.21
Current Price$54.75
Upside408.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%11.12%1.101.151.752.402.101.100.700.950.940.95
YoY Growth---4.35%-34.29%-27.08%14.29%90.91%57.14%-26.32%1.07%-1.06%147.78%
Dividend Yield--1.94%1.83%1.83%2.22%1.63%1.73%1.29%1.49%1.53%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,959.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,559.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)591.96369.97221.98
Cash Retained (M)1,559.801,559.801,559.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-591.96-369.97-221.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)967.841,189.821,337.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.001,000.001,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.191.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.191.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Fair Value$156.94$469.72$586.00
Upside / Downside186.64%757.94%970.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,959.803,138.003,326.923,527.223,739.583,964.734,083.67
Payout Ratio47.30%55.84%64.38%72.92%81.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,400.001,752.272,141.882,572.063,046.273,568.253,777.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.02%6.02%7.02%
Year 1 PV (M)1,628.201,643.701,659.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,849.301,884.691,920.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,063.472,122.982,183.62
Year 4 PV (M)2,270.872,358.612,448.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,471.652,591.582,716.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)72,577.3976,099.2179,756.45
Equity Value (M)82,860.8886,700.7890,684.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.001,000.001,000.00
Fair Value$82.86$86.70$90.68
Upside / Downside51.34%58.36%65.63%

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