Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Industry

Sector

Aspo Oyj (ASPO.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.99 - $11.76$9.08
Multi-Stage$13.47 - $14.82$14.13
Blended Fair Value$11.60
Current Price$5.98
Upside94.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.34%1.66%0.220.430.420.320.200.410.390.380.370.36
YoY Growth---48.08%2.40%28.95%59.41%-49.88%3.06%3.37%2.50%2.80%91.72%
Dividend Yield--4.33%7.10%4.88%4.57%2.29%7.01%4.44%3.82%4.19%4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.962.481.49
Cash Retained (M)16.9516.9516.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.96-2.48-1.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.9914.4815.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Fair Value$6.99$9.08$11.76
Upside / Downside16.83%51.77%96.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.8019.9320.0620.1920.3320.4621.07
Payout Ratio14.38%29.50%44.63%59.75%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.855.888.9512.0715.2218.4119.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.34%0.66%1.66%
Year 1 PV (M)5.475.535.58
Year 2 PV (M)7.767.928.07
Year 3 PV (M)9.7410.0310.33
Year 4 PV (M)11.4311.9012.38
Year 5 PV (M)12.8813.5414.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)407.73428.60450.32
Equity Value (M)455.02477.52500.92
Shares Outstanding (M)33.7933.7933.79
Fair Value$13.47$14.13$14.82
Upside / Downside125.17%136.31%147.89%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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