Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10,644.20 - $24,212.42$22,690.58
Multi-Stage$3,712.72 - $4,057.78$3,882.10
Blended Fair Value$13,286.34
Current Price$1,210.00
Upside998.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%22.77%99.88124.8541.9526.9719.9936.5744.7030.3618.1725.92
YoY Growth---20.00%197.62%55.56%34.90%-45.33%-18.18%47.20%67.08%-29.88%101.86%
Dividend Yield--9.12%7.30%2.71%2.96%3.10%9.26%4.70%2.68%1.45%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,405,838.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,977,629.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)428,208.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)481,167.63300,729.77180,437.86
Cash Retained (M)428,208.68428,208.68428,208.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-481,167.63-300,729.77-180,437.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-52,958.95127,478.91247,770.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
LTM Dividend per Share100.08100.08100.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.40106.53112.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10,644.20$22,690.58$24,212.42
Upside / Downside779.69%1,775.25%1,901.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,405,838.142,562,217.612,728,761.762,906,131.273,095,029.813,296,206.743,395,092.95
Payout Ratio82.20%83.76%85.32%86.88%88.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,977,629.462,146,139.472,328,200.302,524,861.592,737,252.212,966,586.073,140,460.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.47%6.47%6.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,996,882.372,015,810.172,034,737.96
Year 2 PV (M)2,015,623.542,054,015.512,092,769.67
Year 3 PV (M)2,033,860.682,092,245.512,151,737.13
Year 4 PV (M)2,051,601.372,130,500.172,211,653.05
Year 5 PV (M)2,068,853.122,168,779.502,272,530.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)63,200,169.7866,252,761.6169,422,183.32
Equity Value (M)73,366,990.8676,714,112.4680,185,611.42
Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
Fair Value$3,712.72$3,882.10$4,057.78
Upside / Downside206.84%220.83%235.35%

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