Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Express Holdings,Inc. (9147.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,799.46 - $3,315.99$2,424.14
Multi-Stage$3,019.90 - $3,311.36$3,162.86
Blended Fair Value$2,793.50
Current Price$2,720.00
Upside2.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%100.800.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32,159.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25,999.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,160.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,431.804,019.882,411.93
Cash Retained (M)6,160.006,160.006,160.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,431.80-4,019.88-2,411.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-271.802,140.133,748.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.91259.91259.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.058.2314.42
LTM Dividend per Share100.03100.03100.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.058.2314.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend98.98108.26114.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Fair Value$1,799.46$2,424.14$3,315.99
Upside / Downside-33.84%-10.88%21.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32,159.0032,790.2533,433.8934,090.1734,759.3335,441.6336,504.87
Payout Ratio80.85%82.68%84.51%86.34%88.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25,999.0027,109.7128,254.0229,432.8030,646.9731,897.4633,767.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Year 1 PV (M)25,201.5425,451.1525,700.76
Year 2 PV (M)24,416.5624,902.6325,393.49
Year 3 PV (M)23,644.9224,354.4925,078.11
Year 4 PV (M)22,887.3723,807.7024,755.50
Year 5 PV (M)22,144.5423,263.1524,426.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)666,612.56700,285.77735,306.21
Equity Value (M)784,907.50822,064.89860,660.59
Shares Outstanding (M)259.91259.91259.91
Fair Value$3,019.90$3,162.86$3,311.36
Upside / Downside11.03%16.28%21.74%

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