Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Hushan (7736.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.76 - $119.81$97.32
Multi-Stage$172.04 - $189.46$180.58
Blended Fair Value$138.95
Current Price$100.50
Upside38.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%2.050.891.020.850.430.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--131.00%-13.19%20.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.71%0.81%0.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)597.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)390.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)119.4974.6844.81
Cash Retained (M)390.58390.58390.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-119.49-74.68-44.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.09315.90345.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.5470.5470.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.844.484.90
LTM Dividend per Share2.932.932.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.844.484.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.787.417.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$77.76$97.32$119.81
Upside / Downside-22.62%-3.17%19.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)597.45591.48585.56579.71573.91568.17585.22
Payout Ratio34.63%45.70%56.78%67.85%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.88270.31332.46393.33452.96511.35541.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)251.16253.72256.28
Year 2 PV (M)287.01292.90298.84
Year 3 PV (M)315.50325.26335.21
Year 4 PV (M)337.58351.57365.99
Year 5 PV (M)354.09372.53391.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,589.9111,141.3611,715.53
Equity Value (M)12,135.2512,737.3313,363.60
Shares Outstanding (M)70.5470.5470.54
Fair Value$172.04$180.58$189.46
Upside / Downside71.19%79.68%88.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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