Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Traffic Control Technology Co., Ltd. (688015.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.05 - $20.73$14.99
Multi-Stage$10.81 - $11.82$11.30
Blended Fair Value$13.14
Current Price$25.32
Upside-48.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.98%0.00%0.200.360.460.380.200.140.060.060.090.00
YoY Growth---45.77%-20.95%21.83%84.06%45.74%125.00%1.58%-30.18%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%2.15%1.97%1.45%0.53%0.29%0.16%0.16%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6117.2610.35
Cash Retained (M)92.6492.6492.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.61-17.26-10.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.0375.3882.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.68192.68192.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.630.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$11.05$14.99$20.73
Upside / Downside-56.37%-40.81%-18.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.05144.49151.23158.29165.67173.40178.60
Payout Ratio32.90%44.32%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.4164.0384.29106.30130.18156.06165.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)58.1658.7259.28
Year 2 PV (M)69.5470.8972.25
Year 3 PV (M)79.6681.9984.36
Year 4 PV (M)88.6192.0895.65
Year 5 PV (M)96.48101.23106.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,690.021,773.121,859.46
Equity Value (M)2,082.472,178.022,277.15
Shares Outstanding (M)192.68192.68192.68
Fair Value$10.81$11.30$11.82
Upside / Downside-57.31%-55.36%-53.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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