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Definitive Analysis

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Morita Holdings Corporation (6455.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,743.53 - $16,529.80$8,999.90
Multi-Stage$6,073.98 - $6,663.19$6,363.04
Blended Fair Value$7,681.47
Current Price$2,324.00
Upside230.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.53%9.92%49.6347.6441.7640.0239.9139.7730.3630.3623.0428.51
YoY Growth--4.18%14.09%4.34%0.29%0.35%30.97%0.00%31.76%-19.17%47.96%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.60%2.69%3.03%2.50%2.11%1.57%1.36%1.31%2.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,179.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,501.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,678.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,035.801,272.38763.43
Cash Retained (M)7,678.007,678.007,678.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,035.80-1,272.38-763.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,642.206,405.636,914.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.1843.1843.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share130.68148.36160.15
LTM Dividend per Share57.9257.9257.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share130.68148.36160.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend188.60206.28218.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$5,743.53$8,999.90$16,529.80
Upside / Downside147.14%287.26%611.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,179.0010,601.6511,041.8411,500.3111,977.8212,475.1612,849.42
Payout Ratio24.57%37.66%50.74%63.83%76.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,501.003,992.175,602.867,340.439,212.6311,227.6411,885.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)3,711.163,747.133,783.11
Year 2 PV (M)4,841.834,936.175,031.41
Year 3 PV (M)5,896.876,070.036,246.56
Year 4 PV (M)6,879.927,150.617,429.21
Year 5 PV (M)7,794.508,179.718,580.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)233,130.51244,652.07256,624.71
Equity Value (M)262,254.78274,735.72287,695.01
Shares Outstanding (M)43.1843.1843.18
Fair Value$6,073.98$6,363.04$6,663.19
Upside / Downside161.36%173.80%186.71%

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